Global coffee prices softened in May 2026, driven by growing expectations of a significant harvest from Brazil. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that its Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 256.05 US cents per pound, marking a 3.8% decrease from the previous month. This price adjustment occurred despite ongoing constraints in physical coffee availability and persistent logistics disruptions affecting the supply chain.
The decline was most pronounced in the Arabica market. According to the ICO's May report, prices for Colombian Milds fell by 3.3% to an average of 323.45 cents/lb, while Other Milds dropped 4.8% to 315.42 cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals experienced the steepest fall, decreasing by 6.4% to 293.72 cents/lb. In contrast, Robusta prices moved against the trend, increasing by 1.1% to an average of 166.51 cents/lb, indicating a divergence between the two major coffee varietals.
The downward pressure on Arabica prices is largely attributed to updated forecasts from Brazil's national supply agency, CONAB. The agency's projections for the 2026/27 crop cycle point toward a potential record harvest of 66.7 million 60kg bags, bolstered by a sharp rebound in Arabica production. However, current market conditions remain tight. Total global exports in April dipped by 0.9% to 12.05 million bags, and certified Arabica inventories in the United States fell by 13.5% month-on-month.